The Child Tax Credit is one of the primary proposals put forward by presidential candidate Kamala Harris to support low-income families. According to an analysis by the Tax Policy Center (TPC), these initiatives, which include tax benefits for families with children, low-income workers, and first-time homebuyers, are projected to reduce government tax revenues by approximately $2 trillion over the next decade.
The TPC estimates that over 70% of households earning less than $113,000—representing the bottom half of the income distribution—would gain from at least one of these tax measures. On average, households could see their tax burden reduced by about $750 in 2025, which would amount to a 0.7% saving on their post-tax income.
What Kamala Harris’s child tax credit proposals include
Among Harris’s proposed measures, the expansion of the Child Tax Credit stands out. Currently, this credit offers up to $2,000 per child, but under the new proposal, the amount could increase to as much as $6,000 per child, depending on their age. Additionally, Harris has proposed expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), which would particularly benefit low-income workers who do not live with their children.
Another proposal Harris has put forth is a refundable tax credit of up to $25,000 for first-time homebuyers. While Harris has not provided specifics on how this credit would operate, the TPC has modeled a similar version based on previous proposals from the Biden administration, which offered a tax credit to first-time homebuyers.
The cost of the measures
The expansion of the Child Tax Credit would be the most expensive of the three proposals, potentially reducing federal tax revenues by approximately $1.6 trillion between 2025 and 2034, according to TPC estimates. Expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit is expected to cost around $140 billion, while the tax credit for first-time homebuyers would reduce federal revenue by roughly $300 billion.
The cost of the homebuyer credit could be even higher if the proposed housing sector measures lead more people to buy homes, thus increasing demand in the real estate market.
Who would benefit the most
The primary beneficiaries of these tax proposals would be households with lower incomes. For example, those earning $33,000 or less could see an increase in their after-tax income of 3.6%, which translates to an average of about $700 in 2025. Meanwhile, higher-income households would see much smaller benefits.
Families in the top 20% income bracket would receive an average tax cut of only 0.1%, equivalent to about $350. Additionally, the wealthiest 1% would receive virtually no tax benefit.
Specific benefits for families with children
The expansion of the Child Tax Credit is particularly targeted at families with young children. In fact, the TPC analysis indicates that more than 75% of households with young children would see a reduction in their tax burden, with an average saving of around $2,800.
Conversely, other demographic groups, such as low-income seniors, would benefit far less, as they are less likely to have young children or be purchasing a home for the first time. In these cases, only about 7% of low-income seniors would receive a tax cut, averaging just $150.
Overall impact on households
While only a little over a quarter of American households would benefit from at least one of these tax measures, those who do qualify would receive significant tax reductions, particularly low-income families with children. Harris’s proposals are designed to provide economic relief to those who need it most, whereas higher-income households would see a much more modest impact on their taxes.
