In about two months, retirees will be eagerly awaiting crucial financial news: the announcement of the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2025, scheduled for mid-October. Current projections suggest that Social Security benefits will increase between 2.6% and 2.7%. However, some estimates indicate that the actual COLA for 2025 could be even higher.
To understand these projections, it is essential to know how the Social Security COLA is determined. The main goal of these adjustments is to protect Social Security benefits from the effects of inflation, helping retirees maintain their purchasing power over time. As expected, the calculation of the COLA is closely tied to inflation statistics.
How Social Security COLA is calculated for retirees
Contrary to what many might think, the Social Security Administration (SSA) does not rely on the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), commonly known as the “headline” inflation number. Instead, the SSA uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The CPI-W specifically focuses on price changes affecting individuals in urban areas where more than half of the family income comes from clerical or hourly wage work.
The SSA calculates the annual COLA by examining the percentage increase, if any, between the average CPI-W for the third quarter (Q3) of the current year and the average CPI-W for the third quarter of the previous year. This percentage increase is then rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent. If there is no increase, Social Security recipients will not receive a COLA for that year.
Why do some people expect a higher COLA than projected? The reason is simple: they might anticipate that inflation will rise enough in the third quarter to exceed the projected range of 2.6% to 2.7%.
Historically, the average CPI-W has been higher in the third quarter than in the second quarter every year since 1974. Additionally, the year-over-year average CPI-W has been higher every year except for three during this period. This historical trend suggests a high probability that the CPI-W will rise again in the third quarter of this year.
Influence of oil prices
Although the annual inflation rate has been on a downward trend since June 2022, a reversal is expected in the third quarter. A key factor is the likely increase in oil prices, which tend to raise the cost of many other goods.
Despite recent declines in oil prices due to concerns about a potential recession following a weaker-than-expected July jobs report, some believe these concerns are overstated. The rise in unemployment was not due to layoffs but rather an influx of people re-entering the labor market.
Uncertainty and expectations
Of course, this projection is not set in stone; much can change in a relatively short period. We will have to wait until October to know the exact figure for the 2025 Social Security COLA. Regardless of the outcome, one thing is certain: retirees will continue to face the challenges of inflation long before any potential benefit increase takes effect.
The cost-of-living adjustment is vital for retirees as it allows them to maintain their purchasing power in the face of inflation. Each year, this adjustment helps ensure that Social Security benefits continue to provide adequate financial support. In a context of rising prices, the COLA becomes a crucial factor for the economic stability of retirees.
The announcement of the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2025 is eagerly awaited by many retirees who depend on these benefits for their daily sustenance. Although current projections suggest a moderate increase, there are reasons to believe that the COLA could be higher.
The combination of factors such as the historical behavior of the CPI-W and fluctuations in oil prices will play a crucial role in determining the final adjustment. Whatever the outcome, the fact remains that retirees will continue to face economic challenges with the hope that this adjustment will provide the necessary relief.
